What does the success of John McCain’s presidential campaign have to do with the number of disasters that will be declared this year? A lot, according to economist Erwann Michel-Kerjan. While conducting a larger study about the impact of catastrophes on the global economy, he analyzed the incidence of federally declared disasters since the early 1950s and came to two conclusions: 1) the incidence of disasters has risen over time; and 2) there are some conspicuous spikes during presidential election years:

What gives? Disaster declarations are presidential acts, which are undertaken at the chief executive’s discretion. While there are some quasi-official criteria–”You’re not going to declare a major disaster just because the wind is running at 10 miles per hour more than average,” Michel-Kerjan notes–the president has some flexibility. And it seems plausible that during an election year, a president seeking to be re-elected or who wants to help maintain his party’s control over the executive branch will try to be seen as a hands-on executive who dispenses aid to voters. Hence, when something bad happens in an election year–the Mississippi River floods, wildfires burn in the West–the president is quicker to declare a federal disaster than he would in a nonelection year. In 1996, President Clinton was so eager to feel his constituents’ pain that he declared 75 disasters, more than twice the number he declared in 1995 and 70 percent more than he did in 1997. But Michel-Kerjan says it’s too simplistic to blame the president. This is a bipartisan, bibranch development. Once the president declares a disaster, Congress decides how much cash to allocate for disaster relief. And in years when members of Congress are eager to be seen delivering goodies and care to their constituents, they’re likely to be more welcoming of opportunities to demonstrate their compassion.

Of course, the theory isn’t “bulletproof.” However, during the first two months of this election year, there have already been 10 federally declared disasters: “The final tally for the year will likely depend on a number of factors: the severity of the Western wildfire season, the number of hurricanes that develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and how much President Bush wants to help John McCain succeed him.”

	Topic: Campaign 2008, WorldMagBlog		Email a friend
	Keywords:		RSS 2.0
	You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.		Share this: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages.