Jon Favreau is Barack Obama’s chief speechwriter, and a lot of people would probably say Obama’s chief weapon in this campaign.  Mr. Favreau is 26 years old.  In this brief Times profile, the young and talented Favreau offers no new insights into speechwriting.  He just seems to be a normal guy with an understanding of language and rhetoric.  Kids these days, I tell you.

Opinion polling is no fun. And worse, as we learned in every election since the dawn of time, they are inaccurate. Obviously, they serve many purposes, the prime reason being, of course, to make money and news.

But opinion polling might be much worse than inaccurate. It’s easy to imagine that the polls themselves affect the outcome of the elections they’re supposed to predict. Voters may be inclined to jump on the bandwagon of a candidate who appears to be cruising to victory. Or they may stay home if they think their favorite is either out of the running or coasting to an easy win. Many believe that ubiquitous horse-race coverage pushes second-tier candidates out of the picture-and that Joseph Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, and Ron Paul are all suffering at the hands of meddlesome pollsters.

So, what if polling, in the name of fairness and an unfettered election process, were illegal? This is an interesting thought experiment.

A few weeks ago, a National Review columnist noodled with the idea of a McCain/Lieberman ticket. Shortly thereafter, the press discarded McCain as an also-ran. Then he won New Hampshire. Now a new poll shows him up nine points in Michigan. Then today comes this Wall Street Journal op-ed on the success of the surge.

The co-byline? John McCain and Joe Lieberman. In that order.

I seem to recall that McCain and Lieberman have co-written op-eds before. But why this one now, when the success of the surge is already well-worn editorial ground? Could their co-byline be a test balloon?

Lieberman has, of course, already endorsed McCain. With speculation on the possibility of an historic Democratic ticket with a black man and a woman (whether Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama), could there be a behind-the-scenes push for the GOP to nominate an also-historic bipartisan GOP/Independent Democrat ticket with a dose of ethno-religious diversity courtesy of Mr. Lieberman?

Running against a pair of mavericks, both of whom are demonstrated moderates, imagine the consternation of the Democrats heading into the heart of the presidential campaign, their ammo stores empty of “failed war” bullets and religious- and economic-extremism grenades. In fact, the Democratic Party might find itself, for once, having to mount a defense against charges of extremism on everything from abortion to the war.

How do you think such a race would play out? And who would win?

The Washington Post’s Richard Cohen says it’s not unusual to catch presidential candidates in a lie.

John Edwards lied about the cost of his haircuts. Fred Thompson lied about lobbying for a pro-choice outfit. John McCain insists that the United States was founded as a “Christian nation.” Mitt Romney concocted the story about how his father marched with Martin Luther King Jr. And Rudy Giuliani is a one-man fib machine […] Yet it is something Barack Obama said that bothers me most of all because Obama is a new kind of politician. He is supposed to be coolly authentic.

What did Obama say, and does it belie his hip young authenticity? 

Over at the very respectable City Journal, Rudy Giuliani has just published an essay (more like a white paper) that is supposed to get him some attention in the presidential race. The subject, as expected, is homeland security, and most of it is very well-done, if boring - until the end. Giuliani says any homeland security plan needs to focus on “prevention, preparedness, and resilience,” and that’s what his essay discusses. The last one - resilience - is the freshest and most intriguing.

A resilient society depends on active, engaged citizens. The way for Washington to encourage resilience is not to throw more money at problems or to place new burdens on business. Government should harness the inherent strength of the American people and the private sector in order to build a society that may bend-but not break-if catastrophe does strike.

The American people are ready, willing, and able to take a more active role in our civil defense. As the White House’s own Lessons Learned report on the federal response to Hurricane Katrina notes, faith-based organizations and community groups successfully provided support to the victims of the hurricane “in spite of, not because of, the government.” Within 72 hours of Katrina’s hitting the Gulf Coast, for instance, a faith-based nonprofit organization-Helping Americans Needing Disaster Support (Hands)- formed to speed delivery of supplies to victims. Just a week after being created, Hands was sending 75 truckloads of supplies for every one FEMA truckload.

Giuliani’s secret weapon in this campaign is his focus on the future, on what’s to be done about this and that. Ron Paul sometimes seems stuck in the past (a rhetorical no-no if you’re trying to get people to elect you in the future), Huck and Mitt seem stuck in the present-tense of who’s the more likable Christian (another rhetorical no-no that lessens discussion of the future). Plans like Giuliani’s might seem less interesting than the Mormon vs. Baptist thing, but Giuliani keeps his rhetoric in the future tense (What’s to be done), and that just might get him elected.

Of course, the title of this post belies the content.  This is not a post about how Huckabee is going to bring back Old Tyme Religion.  I’m not sure I want it back.  No, this is not a post about Huckabee the Preacher.  It’s a post about Huckabee the Candidate. 

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Today, Mitt Romney is giving his “Mormon Speech,” probably as a trick play because of what Huckabee is doing to him in Iowa.   If the speech is really good, or really bad, it might be important enough to include in the canon of important American speeches, mainly for its significance as a marker of the cultural techtonics of the American landscape.  Two writers from The American Scene offer their services at what he should say.  The speech starts with an anecdote about Brigham Young, and it’s quite effective. 

HT: The Atlantic Monthly

This is news Republicans like to hear: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey reveals that Mike Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton and is only four points shy of Barack Obama. Of course, poll numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt, but it sure looks like the next couple of months are going to be interesting.

Mike Huckabee snagged another endorsement. Some say it’s a boost for him, but what impact do you think it will really have?

You can learn a lot about a person by looking at the contents of his wallet or her purse. What would we discover if we had the opportunity to sift through those of the presidential hopefuls? Columnist Lane Filler had the opportunity to do just that with Mike Huckabee’s wallet–and to surmise about the others.