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Youth vote vital

11 Comments by Kiley Humphries February 9 10:00 AM

Heather Smith, Executive Director of Rock the Vote, called Super Tuesday’s youth vote “the most electrifying moment in U.S. election history.”

Regardless of whether or not it was the most electrifying, no one can doubt it was groundbreaking. In almost every state primary the number of voters ages 18-30 doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled compared to the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Tennessee’s primaries brought in 35,000 youth voters in 2000. Nearly 140,000 voted on Tuesday. Georgia saw 92,000 in 2000 tripled to more than 280,000. Massachusetts doubled, Connecticut doubled, and Oklahoma tripled. In Missouri the youth not only tripled their vote (and represented 14% of the total voting population), some assert that they decided the race. Taking 75,000 youth votes for his candidacy, Obama won by a mere 10,000 votes.

The consistency of the youth vote has a sketchy past. The election history books tell us that the hype dies away fast. Will the generation of microwaveable meals and internet shopping stick this one out for the long run? Chrissy Faessen from Rock the Vote told WoW “definitely.” “Young people have turned out and increased their turn out from years past. The momentum is there, the movement is growing, and we see it continuing through the election.” Peter Levine, a research scholar from the University of Maryland argues that especially for Democratic youth, the intrigue of this election will keep them interested. With Clinton and Obama neck and neck, he believes the youth feel their voice is vital.

Charles Dunn of Regent University’s School of Government, however, says that he must “pour salt” on the influence of the youth as this election continues. Looking back, Dunn says the youth have been an inconsistent bloc whose votes should be welcomed by candidates, but not banked on for consistency.

One thing is clear, after Super Tuesday they’ve proven they shouldn’t be ignored.

Bye bye Romney?

67 Comments by David Sessions February 6 5:47 PM

sessions0206 After Gov. Mitt Romney’s negligible showing in the Super Tuesday primaries, the morning blogosphere echoed with a resounding death knell for his candidacy. Huckabee supporters gloated at the fresh reminder that their man is actually the second-runner, and even some Romney supporters reluctantly began reluctantly accepting McCain.

My friend Chad Matlin has one of the best summaries of why last night was such a blow to Romney:

Romney’s last hope was to remain relevant in California, but that worked about as well as his two-dozen different campaign messages. The next few contests—Kansas, Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, and Maryland—don’t really favor him, but that’s because the country doesn’t favor him. The only region where Romney did especially well was in the mountain west, where Mormons live and news stories go to die.

Conservative blogger Hugh Hewitt notes “Senator McCain’s lead” and urges fellow Romney supporters to rally around “the GOP nominee” (whose name he is apparently reluctant to say). And Rick Moran of Right Wing Nut House employed dialogue from the famous Monty Python dead-parrot skit to describe Romney: “E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibile!”

But perhaps the most interesting observation was made by Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost. He contends that there is a sharp disparity between “pundit-based reality” and “voter-based reality,” which means the media has been telling us a fairy-tale story about Huckabee and Romney. (Wouldn’t that be a shocker?) The official yarn has been that if Huckabee would just move out of the way, Romney would have less trouble shoring up the conservative vote. Carter thinks it’s the opposite: Huckabee is actually competing with McCain for evangelical and conservative support, while Romney is the one desperately siphoning votes.

The fact that Super Tuesday voters clearly didn’t see Romney as a true conservative—he didn’t even place second in the most conservative states—seems to lend support to Carter’s theory. As does common sense: the mainstream media has been so unable to accept Huckabee as a serious candidate, that they simply decided Romney was the only real choice for “hardcore conservatives.” The campaign narrative has followed that invented arc, rather irrationally assuming that Huckabee would slowly die out as electability became an increasingly important factor. If Christians have been discouraged from supporting Huckabee, it probably has more to do with being constantly told he’s unelectable than a sincere belief that Mitt Romney is the one true conservative. Thus, it’s not really a surprise to see Huckabee claiming his natural demographic as Romney — reckless purchasing power and endorsements aside — remained unable to win much of anything.

Super Tuesday proved a lot of pundits wrong about a lot of things. They knew Huckabee did not have a chance of becoming the nominee (which he never did), but their assumptive exaggerations of Romney’s viability have probably kept his campaign alive past its natural expiration.

Obama and Clinton’s wild West showdown

2 Comments by Mickey McLean February 6 10:20 AM

As Super Tuesday turns into Weary Wednesday for those following the presidential race, WORLD’s Mark Bergin takes a look at what happened at yesterday’s Democratic caucuses in Colorado, where Barack Obama unexpectedly pounded Hillary Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.

Super Tuesday results roll in

23 Comments by Mickey McLean February 5 8:43 PM

Polls are closing across the nation in the 24 states holding presidential primaries or caucuses today. By the end of tonight, will we know who the nominee will be for the Democrats and the Republicans?

Here are the final results so far (to be updated throughout the evening):

Democrats

  • Hillary Clinton (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, California)
  • Barack Obama (Georgia, Illinois, Delaware, Alabama, Kansas, Utah, North Dakota, Connecticut, Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Alaska, Missouri)

Republicans

  • Mike Huckabee (West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia)
  • John McCain (New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Oklahoma, Arizona, Missouri, California)
  • Mitt Romney (Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado, Alaska)
  • Ron Paul (none) [for Wiglaf ;-) ]

And here’s an interactive map to help you follow the breakdown of the vote and the delegate count.

UPDATE (10:15 p.m.): The highlights so far include Clinton taking the major northeast states of New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts — the state where Obama was endorsed by both of its U.S. senators and by its governor; Huckabee winning and leading in what’s looking like a solid South for him; and Romney, so far, winning in only his home state of Massachusetts and in the Mormon-dominated state of Utah.

UPDATE (10:45 p.m.): With McCain finally being called the winner in Arizona, all five major candidates have won their home states.

UPDATE (12:15 a.m.): Clinton and McCain take California.

Tackling Super Tuesday

7 Comments by Alisa Harris February 5 12:23 PM

Super Tuesday will be key to deciding the presidential nominees but don’t expect the race for the nomination to end today — especially for the Democrats. McCain’s lead over Romney is widening, and if he captures the most states and delegates tonight he should emerge the clear victor. Obama has narrowed Clinton’s once-wide lead and Democrats award victory based on a combination of popular vote, delegates won, and states won. Expect some spin once the votes come in.

WHAT’S AT STAKE

  • 3, 516 delegates in 24 states.
  • Republicans need 1,191 delegates to win the party’s nomination. Current tally: John McCain 93, Mitt Romney 77, and Mike Huckabee 40.
  • Democrats need 2,025 delegates to win. Current tally: Barack Obama 190, Hillary Clinton 261.

VOTERS TO WATCH

  • Women. Clinton consistently pulls women voters, but Obama has recruited female campaigners like Oprah, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, and his wife Michelle. Will exit polls show that he’s gaining support among women voters?
  • Hispanics. Clinton proved her popularity with Hispanics in Florida and Nevada, and McCain’s immigration policies are popular with Hispanic voters. Can their opponents take Hispanic votes?

STATES TO WATCH

  • California: 173 GOP delegates, 441 Democratic delegates. Clinton’s lead is shrinking and polls say she has 36% to Obama’s 34%. McCain has 32% to Romney’s 24%.
  • New York: 101 GOP delegates, 281 Democratic delegates. Thanks to Giuliani’s blessing, McCain is polling 54% to Romney’s 22%. This is a Clinton stronghold, but Obama has won endorsements from African-American leaders there.
  • New Jersey: 127 Democratic delegates. Obama’s momentum has spread to New Jersey, and it’s no longer clearly Clinton country. Current polls say Clinton 48%, Obama 43%.
  • Massachusetts: 43 GOP delegates, 121 Democratic delegates. Another state where Clinton’s lead has shrunk (Obama 46%, Clinton 44%), thanks to Sen. Ted Kennedy’s endorsement. Romney still polls 50% to McCain’s 37%, but analysts say McCain is gaining momentum. If he wins, it may strike a fatal blow to the Romney campaign.
  • Missouri : 58 GOP delegates, 88 Democratic delegates. This is a state with a large number of evangelicals, and McCain is polling 37% to Romney 24%. It’s another close state for the Democrats with Clinton at 47% and Obama at 41%.
  • Arizona: 67 Democratic delegates. This state is key for the Hispanic vote, and (for the Democrats at least) it’s up for grabs.
  • Georgia: 72 GOP delegates. Another state with a big evangelical population, it’s a close three-way race between McCain (33%), Romney (27%), and Huckabee (17%).
  • Alabama: 48 delegates. A close state for both Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats watching the black vote and Republicans stumping for the evangelicals. Among Republicans, 29% are undecided, 25% are with Huckabee 25%, and 22% are for McCain. Where will the undecided voters go?

Democrats down to two

19 Comments by Mickey McLean January 30 4:38 PM

As we head toward Super Tuesday, the Democrats have narrowed their field of candidates down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, with John Edwards “suspending” his campaign today “so that history can blaze its path.” (Technically, there are still three Democratic candidates, if you count Mike Gravel.) According to a recent Associated Press–Yahoo poll, four in 10 Edwards supporters would pick Clinton as their second choice, while a quarter would go with Obama.