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A pivotal primary night

14 Comments by Mickey McLean March 4 8:18 PM

Let us know your thoughts as the primary results from Vermont, Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island roll in …

VERMONT: Barack Obama and John McCain take the Green Mountain State.

OHIO: McCain easily defeats Mike Huckabee, who will address his supporters at 9:15 p.m. Obama’s campaign has filed a complaint to keep the polls open in Cuyahoga County and other counties—weather and ballot shortages are cited as reasons.

UPDATE: As McCain appears to have locked up the Republican nomination tonight, he plans to visit the White House tomorrow and then address the Republican National Committee.

RHODE ISLAND: McCain wins the Ocean State.

TEXAS: McCain wins again, and with the Lone Star State’s delegates, he will have the 1,191 needed to capture the Republican nomination.

UPDATE: Huckabee calls McCain to concede the nomination and then tells supporters that he’s dropping out of the race.

RHODE ISLAND: Hillary Clinton breaks Obama’s 12-primary winning streak, taking Little Rhody.

OHIO: Clinton makes it two in a row with a win in the Buckeye State.

TEXAS: Clinton takes the Texas primary, too.

And McCain endorses …

6 Comments by Alisa Harris March 4 3:20 PM

Who should John McCain root for in today’s Democratic primary?

On the Weekly Standard blog, Jaime Sneider says McCain should root for Obama because the longer the Democratic race drags on, the less publicity McCain gets. If this is true, then McCain better hope for a decisive victory. A recent ABC poll found that most Democrats (67%) want Clinton to stay in the race if she loses either Texas or Ohio.

But Rush Limbaugh says McCain should want the Democratic fight to continue. The longer Clinton and Obama spend squabbling with each other, the less time they’ll devote to attacking John McCain, says Limbaugh. This is why he urges Texas Republicans to vote for Clinton: “Cross over, pimp yourselves for a day, vote for Hillary to keep this campaign going, this uncivil war.”

A month ago, Nicholas Kristof named Obama the stronger Democratic candidate because he appeals more to evangelicals, Republicans, Independents and swing voters. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that Obama will be harder to defeat. In a race between Clinton and McCain, Real Clear Politics finds a tie in most polls, but in a race against Obama, McCain might not fare so well. Obama is 4.6 points ahead of McCain on average, and a CBS/New York Times poll gave Obama a full 12-point lead.

But the general election isn’t held today, and this election has seen its share of rises, falls and comebacks. In the beginning of 2007, Clinton was polling 34% to Obama’s 17%. Now Obama leads and Clinton has counted eleven consecutive primary defeats. Giuliani, once favored as a frontrunner, dropped out without a delegate to his name. Kristof points out that in 1988, Michael Dukakis boasted a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush — four months before he lost the election.

Also, Obama is going down in the polls for the first time. Thanks perhaps in part to SNL ribbing and Slate.com mocking, the media seems to be breaking off its love affair with Obama. New York Daily News says Obama underwent “the toughest news conference of his campaign” yesterday. If Clinton can convince voters that Obama criticized NAFTA only for political gain, she’ll hit Obama where it hurts the most, tarnishing his bright and shiny image as the candidate for hope.

Key to the Democratic primaries

7 Comments by Alisa Harris March 4 12:51 PM

WHAT’S AT STAKE

Democrats need 2,025 delegates to snag the party’s nomination. According to the Washington Post, Obama has 1,386 delegates and 199 of the 800 super delegates. Clinton has 1,276 delegates, including 241 super delegates. At The New Republic’s Plank, Jonathan Chait says Clinton needs 57% of the pledged delegates to claim a victory.

 

TEXAS

  • Delegates: 228 total delegates, 35 super delegates
  • Polls: Still too close to call, but Real Clear Politics takes an average and gives Clinton a tiny 1.7% lead.
  • Key Demographics: Hispanics (37.1%), Blacks (22%), Females (51.9%) 29 and young voters (11%).

OHIO

  • Delegates: 161 total delegates, 20 super delegates
  • Key voter group: Union workers, who make up 14% of Ohio’s workers.

RHODE ISLAND

  • Delegates: 32

VERMONT

  • Delegates: 15

KEY QUESTIONS

  • Who will sway religious voters? A Gallup Poll found that highly religious white Democrats tend to favor Clinton over Obama. Black Democrats — usually more religious than white Democrats — heavily favor Obama, however. Christianity Today notes that it is hard to find reliable data for Democratic-voting evangelicals
  • Will Republicans and conservative-leaning Independents vote for Obama?
  • Can Clinton’s 3:00 AM ad convince voters that she’s the one to trust on national security?
  • Will “NAFTA-gate,” as the Clinton campaign calls it, tarnish Obama’s rhetoric of change?

NBC tag-teams in Ohio debate

11 Comments by Clint Rainey February 27 12:18 PM

A struggling Hillary Clinton went after Barack Obama last night during a close-quarters debate at Cleveland State University, but she was outmanned—as moderators Tim Russert and Brian Williams seemed to have Obama’s back.

As The New York Times reported, the toughest debate blows “came not from Mr. Obama but from Mr. Russert, who fiercely questioned [Clinton] about her past positions on NAFTA, Iraq and even a campaign promise from 2000, in her first Senate run.” A video mix-up caused two negative clips of Clinton to be played in a row. Williams apologized, but still turned to Obama, giving him a shot gratis: “Since we played that tape, albeit in error, for this segment, how did you take those remarks when you heard them?”

Post-debate commentary largely chalked the win to Obama, though some said it was a boring, “low-scoring” event—like “a hockey game . . . and I didn’t see many goals,” said “Hardball” pundit Chris Matthews. Clinton vented at one point that she felt ganged up on, complaining that she always gets asked questions first. She referenced this weekend’s “Saturday Night Live” skit that mocked the previous debate in Texas by turning its moderators into Obama-obsessed fawners. (Jorge Ramos’s faux title was “Univision reporter/Obama stalker.”) The real Clinton parroted the skit to the moderators: “Ask Barack if he’s comfortable.”

Russert later challenged Clinton to name Vladimir Putin’s successor Dmitri Medvedev (”Med—uh, Medvedev . . . whatever,” she said), and to release her tax return. “I will do it as others have done it,” she said, “or even earlier, Tim.” Russert shot back, “So, before next Tuesday’s primary?” Flustered, Hillary responded she “can’t get it together by then” because she’s “a little busy right now. I hardly have time to sleep.”

For his part, moderators asked Obama if he’d renege on his promise to opt for a publicly funded general election—a pledge McCain says he’ll honor. Obama replied that “if I’m the nominee,” he’ll “sit down with John McCain and make sure that we have a system that is fair for both sides.” He also was pressed on last week’s surprise endorsement—one by Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan. Russert wondered how Farrakhan’s anti-Semitism looks to Jewish supporters and noted that Obama lifted his book title, The Audacity of Hope, from his pastor Jeremiah Wright, who has praised Farrakhan and whose in-house magazine gave Farrakhan a lifetime-achievement award.

Clinton chimed in here, saying that when New York’s Independence Party, whose platform has anti-Semitic elements, endorsed her in the 2000 Senate race, she “rejected” its support. Obama, who in his response to Russert “denounced” anti-Semitic support like Farrakhan’s, smiled and responded that he, then, is happy to both “reject and denounce” Farrakhan.

It was the 20th debate, and if Clinton fails to reverse the tide during Tuesday’s elections in Texas (where Obama leads) and Ohio (where Clinton’s lead is fading), it could be the final. Supporters fear Clinton’s campaign is becoming a long shot. Some signs: It has only won 13 states to Obama’s 24. Sen. Chris Dodd, the former running mate and a Connecticut superdelegate, endorsed Obama yesterday. A CBS/New York Times poll released Monday has Clinton down by 16 points. Her campaign is having trouble making payments, even as she has loaned it $5 million.

The new WORLD, hot off the server

1 Comment by Mickey McLean February 15 3:45 PM

If you’re not a subscriber of WORLD Magazine — or if you are one and are just impatient and can’t wait for the latest issue to arrive in your mailbox — head on over to WORLDMag.com to check out the February 23 issue, hot off the server. Here are some highlights:

  • “No heaven on earth” — Jamie Dean reports on how John McCain can’t tune out conservative angst over his candidacy.
  • “Barack the vote” — Mark Bergin writes about how Barack Obama’s quick draw in the Wild West has Hillary Clinton on the run.
  • “The bloc to watch” — Clint Rainey checks in from Texas, where the Hispanic vote will have clout in the state’s March 4 primary.
  • “End of an illusion” — Joel Belz discusses how evangelicals are not the political force many thought they were.
  • “Bewitching hour” — Marvin Olasky on how the Obama campaign is emotionally appealing but not very specific.

Plus, there’s an excerpt from Anne Rice’s second novel on the life of Jesus, Christ the Lord: The Road to Cana, along with an explanation from Rice for why she depicted as she did Jesus’ encounter with Satan.